Caribbean Wave Poised to Move into Gulf

Tropical Depression One failed to become Tropical Storm Ana earlier this year; however a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea now appears to have the potential to become TD 2 and possibly even TS Ana. The tropical low has been spinning of the coast of Central America, and has developed a large area of thunderstorms over the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has recently given the system a medium (30-50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The wave is expected to bring heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula as it moves to the northwest and crosses over into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Much to the chagrin of the residents of the Gulf Coast, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the gulf are in the mid 80s, and conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development. If the wave can survive as it crosses the Yucatan, we could be looking at Tropical Storm Ana by the beginning of next week.

Update (6/27/09, 11:53 AM): The tropical wave still does not have a well defined circulation and has lost some of its thunderstorms. Therefore, as the NHC predicted, it is very unlikely that this storm will be named before moving over the Yucatan.

Update (6/28/09, 3:22 PM): The NHC has given this system a low (less than a 30%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It remains very disorganized and has lost a bit of thunderstorm of activity. However, it may strengthen as it emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Update (6/29/2009, 11:09 AM): The system has lost all of its thunderstorm activity and is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Sea of Tranquility

No, this title does not reference the famous landing site of Apollo 11; instead that title could be used to describe the tropical Atlantic Ocean since the opening of Hurricane Season 2009, on June 1st. The National Hurricane Center has not had much of a chance to issue their slew of new and experimental products. In fact, my least favorite phrase has found its way into the Tropical Weather Outlook almost on a daily basis. "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." Does this mean that we are in for that average season that NOAA predicted? Does this mean that the eastern seaboard of the United States can finally take a deep breath this summer? Not quite. Here are some examples of some significant hurricane seasons within the past 20 years that started off slowly out of the gate.

1992 Hurricane Season
This season wasn't exactly the most active season on record. In fact only seven named storms and four hurricanes formed that year. However, it only takes one storm to make an impact. The first named storm of that year didn't form until August 16, but it made its presence felt. A tropical wave emerged from the Eastern Atlantic and became a little tropical storm that you might of heard of, Andrew. That little storm became a powerful Category 5 storm that slammed into Florida while becoming the costliest hurricane in US history. Katrina in 2005, has since past Andrew in that category. Nonetheless, Andrew proved that a quiet first two months does not correlate to a quiet season for the United States.

1998 Hurricane Season
Coming off of a record setting El Nino event, the first few months of the 1998 season were anomalously quiet. In fact, the first hurricane of the season, Bonnie, did not form until late August. However, unlike the 1992 season, this season evolved into one of the most active seasons of the decade. Storms such as the aforementioned Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch devastated the Atlantic Basin. Mitch in particular grew to a powerful category five storm that devastated Central America with its torrential rains. Up to 75 inches of rain fell into mountainous regions of Honduras and over 10,000 people were left dead in Mitch's wake.

Now, does this mean we are in for the same fate as those in Florida in 1992 and Central America in 1998? Absolutely not. In fact there is a good chance that we made indeed have only an average season this year. Just remember the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is still a few months away, and as the great Yankee catcher Yogi Berra once said, "It's not over until it's over."

NOAA's 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

Last week, I was fortunate enough to be working at the National Weather Service when we were briefed on NOAA's season predictions. The Tropical Prediction Center is calling for a near average season this year with only 9-14 named storms and 4-7 hurricanes.

As I mentioned, I was fortunate to get a chance to listen to some of the scientists who made these predictions explain their outlook. They showed us that the Atlantic is indeed cooler than average for this time of year. Additionally, they explained that we are moving into a shift towards an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino year, there tends unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development due to an increase in the amount of wind shear across the Atlantic basin

However, right now we are in an ENSO-neutral pattern which definitely creates some uncertainty because we don't know exactly when the less favorable conditons will set in. However, El Nino is far from the only factor that affects these natural phenomina. Through my undergraduate research, I have learned that the NAO, the Gulf of Mexico's loop current, and even the amount of dust that blows off of the African coast can affect how many storms form in any given year. Therefore, it would not be unheard of to see more or even less activity this year.

If I had to make a prediciton, I would aim a few storms higher than the NHC going with 12-17 named storms. I leave you with this final note: The last time the atlantic tropical cyclone count was in the single digits was way back in 1997, when a record setting El Nino pattern was in place.

Happy hurricane hunting to all of my fellow tropical nuts, and most of all stay safe everyone!

TD One Kicks Off the Season Early

At 11AM EDT, or three days and thirteen hours before the official beginning of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Hurricane Center issued a public advisory on its first storm of the season. Tropical Depression One formed from a small low pressure system that had been spinning over the Gulf Stream for the past few days. Yesterday, the NHC did not expect this system to develop, but convection arose around the circulation low pressure system last night and early this morning. TD One is expected to become Tropical Storm Ana before it becomes extratropical over the cold waters of the N. Atlantic. Fortunately, TD One is not expect to impact any land masses as it moves NE away from the United States.

Update (6/29/09 6:30 PM): The NHC issued its final advisory on TD One which has lost its tropical characteristics over the cold waters of the northern Atlantic today. It seems like we are just going to have to wait until the official start of the season before we see Ana form. I'll try my best to keep posting whenever there is a storm in the Atlantic this season.

(satellite image courtesy of NOAA and the National Hurricane Center)

Collegian Discourages Volunteer Organization

This letter is in response to the Wednesday, March 4 critique of the Campus Weather Service’s Weather Page.

The Daily Collegian receives the Weather Page from the Penn State Department of Meteorology volunteer organization, the Campus Weather Service (CWS). The Department of Meteorology is considered to have the best programs in the country and is known for being academically rigorous. The New York Times entrusts its full-page weather spread to the Communications Group in the Department of Meteorology. Also, the Department houses the Pennsylvania State Climatology Office.

One of the CWS’s five branches focuses solely on producing the forecast for The Daily Collegian. Teams of five to ten student meteorologists work approximately two hours each night, Sunday to Thursday, to generate an accurate, free product for The Daily Collegian newspaper. The final product provides students at the University Park Campus with a four-day outlook, a forecast discussion, and almanac/climate information.

Over the past several years, the editors of The Daily Collegian have drastically cut the Weather Page removing sections like the Special Weather Feature. On numerous occasions, The Daily Collegian has printed the wrong forecast, changed the graphics, or given credit to the wrong shift members.

On Wednesday, Collegian editors and managers removed Saturday’s forecast, chopped off the last few sentences of the forecast discussion, and removed the names of the individuals who created the product as a means to make room for more news stories on the page.

Sadly, The Daily Collegian is removing information from the most accurate forecast in the State College area. The shift managers and vice-president of The Daily Collegian branch of the CWS have maintained statistics on forecasts generated by each shift, and compared the forecasts against the numerical weather prediction models and professional service providers. Through the statistics, the branch has found that the CWS forecast is consistently the most accurate in Happy Valley. This accuracy stems from the fact that CWS focuses on one location and not the entire nation. The professional service providers cannot devote the resources to a site-specific forecast.

I hope that the editors of The Daily Collegian will reconsider before they criticize members of the Campus Weather Service in the future.