Tropical Storm Kyle

I just wanted to get this up on the blog. I will let Mike fill in all the details. This image of the Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone was taken from the NWS National Hurricane Center.

Quick Wx Challenge Reminder

Just a quick reminder that the deadline to sign up for the Wx Challenge is this Friday, September 26, 2008.

From September 29, 2008 - October 9, 2008, the WxChallenge will be forecasting for Jacksonville, FL (KJAX). Forecasts are due by 00 UTC.

Here is a link to the US Naval Observatory Master Clock Time.

Many of the bloggers here at The Wx Blog are participating in the Wx Challenge, so expect them to post discussions regarding their forecasts for the current city. No numbers will be posted on this blog until after the submission deadline.

An End to the Nice Weather...

It looks as if the week is going to end on a dreary note after a gorgeous stretch of weather dating back to last week! The high pressure system that has been in control will move off the New England coast tonight and allow a low pressure system to move northward from the waters off the coast of the Carolinas.

This low will bring high clouds in tonight and tomorrow and eventually rain later tomorrow evening. The clouds are already moving into the SE counties of PA.

This is sort of an odd set up for a weather pattern in this area for this time of year. This pattern reminds me of something we might see in the winter with a Nor'Easter. They can also happen in the fall but late September is usually too soon for Nor'Easters.

The weather should deteriorate quickly in the State College area on Thursday evening with some gusty winds possible in the higher elevations and periods of rain developing overnight. Friday looks to be a dreary day with rain most of the time. The low moves to our North on Friday night and occludes which should lessen the chance for rain on Saturday as the day progresses. In the meantime, a low of tropical origin looks to effect the New England coast this weekend as well...maybe Mike would like to blog on that.

Overall, we've had a great stretch of weather but we are in for some beneficial rain to end the week. On a side note, the game against Illinois looks cool with scattered showers. GO STATE! BEAT ILLINI!

The Daily Collegian

The CWS Daily Collegian Forecast Discussion for September 24, 2008:
The pleasant conditions that have graced the Keystone state will come to an end as we move through the remainder of the week. Today, clouds will mix with sun, as high pressure finally begins to depart. A low pressure system will develop off the coast of the Carolinas tonight and will bring damp conditions to Pennsylvania by the evening hours Thursday. Showers will continue throughout the day Friday and linger into Saturday as fans prepare for the showdown against Illinois. Temperatures will continue to stay near average as highs will remain near 70 for the forecast period.

It looks like the Daily Collegian finally got it right!

Hurricane Ike In Rare Company

Hurricane Ike's damage estimates are finally coming in from the Gulf Coast. Estimated damage to property is nearly $31 billion (in 2008 US Dollars). $27 billion of the total came from the Gulf Coast of the US, with the other $4 billion coming in from Cuba where Ike made landfall as a category 4 hurricane. If the estimates are correct, Ike will become the third costliest hurricane in US history, behind only Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew.

Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall earlier this season, caused $17.5 billion worth of property damage, making it the 6th costliest hurricane behind Katrina, Andrew, Wilma, Ike, and Ivan. Interestingly enough 5 of those 6 storms have come since 2004.

Note: I'll write an updated statistical article after the end of the season that will document all of the records that fell during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A Fantastic End to Summer

Tranquil. If I were to describe the weather over the past 6 days plus the next 6, that would be the word. We have seen partly to mostly sunny skies here in State College with temperatures right around where they should be. We have to look back to September 13th to find our last day with precipitation. This past Sunday night/early Monday morning, we did see some higher winds associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ike, but we were sparred from the heavy rains unlike Texas. I clocked a gust up to 41 mph on campus. There were few power outages reported, but nothing compared to western PA and eastern OH. Other than that, it has been beautiful here. People are out and about playing sports, reading or just relaxing. Unfortunately, we are running out of time to do these activities as the days are getting shorter. The sun set today at 7:11p. The picture above is a picture I took on August 30, 2008 of the sun setting from Irvin Hall at PSU. The sun setting early is a sign that the autumnal equinox is quickly approaching. To be exact, it occurs on Monday at 11:44am EDT. I can't believe that summer has already come to an end! So, get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather with rest of daylight that we have!

Regional Roundup & H. Ike Aftermath

For tomorrow's Penn State vs. Temple game, we will continue to see seasonable weather as a ridge of high pressure dominates the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In several areas to our north, a Frost Advisory will remain in effect for the next several days. During the day on Sunday, a weak cold front will push across the State.

Down in Galveston, Texas, efforts are under way to aid the victims of Hurricane Ike. This image, taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Geodetic Survey's Hurricane Ike Base Map Image Index Page of the coast along the Blue Water Highway north of Surfside Beach, illustrates the devastation left behind for residents to pickup the pieces.

The Daily Collegian

The CWS Daily Collegian Forecast Discussion for September 17, 2008:
The Commonwealth will return to seasonable conditions this week as a high pressure system resides over Happy Valley until the weekend. Today, clouds will dominate the morning skies with some clearing by the afternoon. During the day, temperatures will be normal and cool off to the low 50’s tonight. A mix of clouds and sun will help us get through the week on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures for these days will approach 70 and the low’s for these days will be in the mid to upper 40’s. Nittany Lion fans will look to enjoy promising weather for the big game on Saturday as the high will be in the mid 70’s with mostly sunny skies.

Update (9/17/08 8:30am): The Daily Collegian acreditied the wrong shift again, but everything else was printed correctly.

Hurricane Ike Rips Through Galveston

September 8, 1900. The Great Hurricane pummeled an ill prepared port city on Texas's Gulf Coast. 108 years later, Galveston never fully recovered. Before the great hurricane Galveston was the largest city in Texas, and was destined to be the most important port city on the Gulf Coast. That one storm changed everything when it essentially leveled the entire city, and killed upwards of 8,000 people. Galveston was rebuilt, and today it houses nearly 60,000 people. However, it never became the major city that it was expected to become. Instead, people moved into the nearby bay and turned Houston into that port metropolis. Five days and 108 years later was Ike here to repeat history?

Ike previously devastated Cuba as a compact but intense hurricane with winds upwards of 125mph. After crossing the entire island, Ike pushed into the Gulf of Mexico where it began to intensify. Most storms use the warm gulf waters to fuel a small area around the center of circulation, and as a result maximum wind speeds increase dramatically. Ike, on the other hand, spread the energy provided from the gulf over a wide range. Despite a dramatic pressure drop, Ike's maximum wind speeds never eclipsed 110 mph in the Gulf. However, Ike's overall size dramatically increased and hurricane force winds could now be felt over a region spanning 120 miles across.

As Ike moves inland today, the thousands of people (over 40% of Galveston's population) that decided to ignore evacuations will wake up to a different landscape. Storm surge ahead of Ike pulled sea water all across the island. The heavy rain bands around Ike's eye dumped over 2" of rain per hour adding to the flooding. Hurricane force winds battered the island for hours and ripped apart weaker structures. It is going to take a major effort to rebuild this region, as Ike likely did over $1 billion in damage.

Luckily for the Galveston, the hurricane did not pass to the south or east. Therefore, the south winds that develop as a hurricane passes in its lower right quadrant missed the city, and allowed the sea water to drain back into the bay. Nonetheless, Ike was a devastating storm for Galveston, and it's name will likely be retired with Gustav at season's end but, thankfully, the Great 1900 Hurricane still stands alone.

Note: I'll post more on Ike and the rest of the season over the next few days. In particularly, I'll write an article about the devastation in LA from Ike and Gustav, and I'll write an opinion article about the people who didn't heed evacuation orders. Right now, I'm just going to take some time to let the details to come back out of the region.

Some Weather Humor

So I thought that I would add a little weather humor to the blog for your viewing pleasure. While all severe weather events should be taken seriously because lives are at danger, it is always good to laugh.

The Daily Collegian

The CWS Daily Collegian Forecast Discussion for September 10, 2008:
The unseasonably warm temperatures and mostly clear skies that we enjoyed after Hanna's departure came to an abrupt end yesterday during early morning hours as a cold front pushed through the Commonwealth. For today, we will see more autumn like conditions and abundant sunshine as a high pressure system dominates the region. By Wednesday night, clouds will begin to enter the region. Clouds continue to build Thursday into Friday before scattered showers finally arrive by Friday evening, bringing a rainy start to the weekend.

Update: (9/10/08 9:00am): We are currently trying to determine why the forecast in the collegian is incorrect.

Update: (9/10/08 10:30am): The Daily Collegian was at fault for today's errors in the paper and on the web.