Caribbean Wave Poised to Move into Gulf

Tropical Depression One failed to become Tropical Storm Ana earlier this year; however a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea now appears to have the potential to become TD 2 and possibly even TS Ana. The tropical low has been spinning of the coast of Central America, and has developed a large area of thunderstorms over the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has recently given the system a medium (30-50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The wave is expected to bring heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula as it moves to the northwest and crosses over into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Much to the chagrin of the residents of the Gulf Coast, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the gulf are in the mid 80s, and conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development. If the wave can survive as it crosses the Yucatan, we could be looking at Tropical Storm Ana by the beginning of next week.

Update (6/27/09, 11:53 AM): The tropical wave still does not have a well defined circulation and has lost some of its thunderstorms. Therefore, as the NHC predicted, it is very unlikely that this storm will be named before moving over the Yucatan.

Update (6/28/09, 3:22 PM): The NHC has given this system a low (less than a 30%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It remains very disorganized and has lost a bit of thunderstorm of activity. However, it may strengthen as it emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Update (6/29/2009, 11:09 AM): The system has lost all of its thunderstorm activity and is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Sea of Tranquility

No, this title does not reference the famous landing site of Apollo 11; instead that title could be used to describe the tropical Atlantic Ocean since the opening of Hurricane Season 2009, on June 1st. The National Hurricane Center has not had much of a chance to issue their slew of new and experimental products. In fact, my least favorite phrase has found its way into the Tropical Weather Outlook almost on a daily basis. "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." Does this mean that we are in for that average season that NOAA predicted? Does this mean that the eastern seaboard of the United States can finally take a deep breath this summer? Not quite. Here are some examples of some significant hurricane seasons within the past 20 years that started off slowly out of the gate.

1992 Hurricane Season
This season wasn't exactly the most active season on record. In fact only seven named storms and four hurricanes formed that year. However, it only takes one storm to make an impact. The first named storm of that year didn't form until August 16, but it made its presence felt. A tropical wave emerged from the Eastern Atlantic and became a little tropical storm that you might of heard of, Andrew. That little storm became a powerful Category 5 storm that slammed into Florida while becoming the costliest hurricane in US history. Katrina in 2005, has since past Andrew in that category. Nonetheless, Andrew proved that a quiet first two months does not correlate to a quiet season for the United States.

1998 Hurricane Season
Coming off of a record setting El Nino event, the first few months of the 1998 season were anomalously quiet. In fact, the first hurricane of the season, Bonnie, did not form until late August. However, unlike the 1992 season, this season evolved into one of the most active seasons of the decade. Storms such as the aforementioned Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch devastated the Atlantic Basin. Mitch in particular grew to a powerful category five storm that devastated Central America with its torrential rains. Up to 75 inches of rain fell into mountainous regions of Honduras and over 10,000 people were left dead in Mitch's wake.

Now, does this mean we are in for the same fate as those in Florida in 1992 and Central America in 1998? Absolutely not. In fact there is a good chance that we made indeed have only an average season this year. Just remember the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is still a few months away, and as the great Yankee catcher Yogi Berra once said, "It's not over until it's over."

NOAA's 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

Last week, I was fortunate enough to be working at the National Weather Service when we were briefed on NOAA's season predictions. The Tropical Prediction Center is calling for a near average season this year with only 9-14 named storms and 4-7 hurricanes.

As I mentioned, I was fortunate to get a chance to listen to some of the scientists who made these predictions explain their outlook. They showed us that the Atlantic is indeed cooler than average for this time of year. Additionally, they explained that we are moving into a shift towards an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino year, there tends unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development due to an increase in the amount of wind shear across the Atlantic basin

However, right now we are in an ENSO-neutral pattern which definitely creates some uncertainty because we don't know exactly when the less favorable conditons will set in. However, El Nino is far from the only factor that affects these natural phenomina. Through my undergraduate research, I have learned that the NAO, the Gulf of Mexico's loop current, and even the amount of dust that blows off of the African coast can affect how many storms form in any given year. Therefore, it would not be unheard of to see more or even less activity this year.

If I had to make a prediciton, I would aim a few storms higher than the NHC going with 12-17 named storms. I leave you with this final note: The last time the atlantic tropical cyclone count was in the single digits was way back in 1997, when a record setting El Nino pattern was in place.

Happy hurricane hunting to all of my fellow tropical nuts, and most of all stay safe everyone!

TD One Kicks Off the Season Early

At 11AM EDT, or three days and thirteen hours before the official beginning of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Hurricane Center issued a public advisory on its first storm of the season. Tropical Depression One formed from a small low pressure system that had been spinning over the Gulf Stream for the past few days. Yesterday, the NHC did not expect this system to develop, but convection arose around the circulation low pressure system last night and early this morning. TD One is expected to become Tropical Storm Ana before it becomes extratropical over the cold waters of the N. Atlantic. Fortunately, TD One is not expect to impact any land masses as it moves NE away from the United States.

Update (6/29/09 6:30 PM): The NHC issued its final advisory on TD One which has lost its tropical characteristics over the cold waters of the northern Atlantic today. It seems like we are just going to have to wait until the official start of the season before we see Ana form. I'll try my best to keep posting whenever there is a storm in the Atlantic this season.

(satellite image courtesy of NOAA and the National Hurricane Center)

Hurricane Season 2008 Summary: Introduction

Finally, now that classes have ended, assignments are no longer due, and the Christmas rush has come and gone, ... It seems like it is time for me to begin my Atlantic Hurricane Season 2008 summary. Much like the National Hurricane Center's summary, my summary will contain information about each and every single storm of the season. However, I plan on interjecting my own opinions, comparisons to previous seasons, and other interesting facts throughout these posts. This summary will be divided up into several different "chapters" that I will post one at a time as I finish them. Some of the sources that I plan on utilizing are NOAA, wikipedia, and possibly some news outlets. I greatly encourage all of our readers to make their own comments on my summary because as much as I'd like to be, I am still not an expert in tropical meteorology. For now I will leave you with a tentative "table of contents" if you will. All the "parts" of the summary will hopefully be published on this site by the time the spring semester starts on January 12th. Until then, I wish everyone a belated Happy Holidays, and a Happy New Year!

EXPECTED "TABLE OF CONTENTS"
Part 1: Quiet Beginnings
-Look back at 2007, preseason expectations, and finally Arthur
Part 2: The Atlantic Warms
-From Bertha to Fay
Part 3: The Peak Months
-Hanna, and introductions to Gustav and Ike
Part 4: Major Hurricane Gustav
-detailed look at Gustav with a look back to Katrina from 2005
Part 5: Major Hurricane Ike
-detailed look at Ike with comparisons to the 1900 Galveston storm
Part 6: Season Finally Winding Down
-From Kyle to Paloma
Part 7: 2008 in Perspective
-conclusions, records, averages, etc, and a look towards 2009

Hurricane Season 2008 Quck Points

Yesterday marked the end of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will post my full season review in a few weeks during winter break. But for now, here are few quick points that I found on the National Hurricane Center's website, and Wikipedia. (the attached image is a product from the NHC during one of the more active parts of this past hurricane season)

2008 Hurricane Season Storms:
(16 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 5 Major Hurricanes)
Tropical Storm Arthur, Major Hurricane Bertha, Tropical Storm Cristobal, Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, Major Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna, Major Hurricane Ike, Tropical Storm Josephine, Hurricane Kyle, Tropical Storm Laura, Tropical Storm Marco, Tropical Storm Nana, Major Hurricane Omar, Major Hurricane Paloma

Of the 16 named storms: Ike was the strongest and most destructive storm, and Hanna was the deadliest storm.

Some Records: Ike was the third most destructive storm to strike the US. Paloma was the second strongest November storm on record. Ike was the largest storm on record while Marco is believed to be the smallest storm ever named. Fay became the first storm to make four landfalls in the same state. Arthur set a record for being the second May storm in as many years.

Forecast Discussion for Puerto Rico ahead of Hurricane Omar

I wrote this discussion for my Dad who is scheduled to fly into Puerto Rico this week. Its pretty comprehensive so I just figured I'd post it for the heck of it. All data is as of 11PM Tuesday Night (20081015/0300 GMT)

As you wake up this morning, you probably have realized that Hurricane Omar underwent some relatively rapid intensification overnight on Tuesday. Winds increased to 75 mph, and it became a category one hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the winds to increase to at least 100+ over the next day or two. Personally, I think they might be underestimating the storm, because they have already misjudged Omar's strength. Not to mention its pressure has dropped significantly around the center of circulation (below 980 mb), and the ocean waters ahead of the system remain warm. However, I doubt you will see intensification of the likes of Hurricane Mitch which became a category five storm in an extremely short period of time in the Caribbean almost exactly ten years to date. Nonetheless, it would not surprise me if Omar became a major hurricane as it was passing the island. Fortunately for the island, Omar's hurricane and tropical storm force winds are wrapped tightly around the center of circulation. I do expect the core of winds to expand a little bit over the warm waters; however, the hurricane force winds should spare the central region of Puerto Rico. Regardless, the winds will be the least of your concerns once you are on the ground. Islands around the region are expecting rainfall totals upwards of a foot from the now nearly stationary storm. Puerto Rico will not experience such extreme totals because the storm will begin to increase forward speed as it turns to the ENE away from the island. Currently, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted for the entire island. The outer rainbands of Omar are just offshore, and will likely interact with the entire island tomorrow. Central Puerto Rico should be spared from the worst of Omar. Barring any rapid intensification, expect periods of heavy rain with localized flooding, coastal flooding associated with storm surge, tropical storm winds (possibly gusting up to hurricane force), and the threat of a tornado. Omar will be just to the SE of the island at 8PM on Wednesday, and will proceed pass to the east of the island. I don't expect widespread devastation from Omar in Puerto Rico, but I know I wouldn't want to fly into this storm.

Tropical Update

Since my last post on Hurricane Ike, three other named tropical storms have formed across the Atlantic. Unfortunately, exams and Penn State Football has dominated my life over the past two weeks, so this is this the first chance I have had to write about them. Anyway...

Hurricane Kyle formed in the Caribbean from a strong tropical low pressure system. Kyle proceeded to strengthen over the Gulf Stream reaching its maximum intensity on September 28th with winds of 80 mph and an estimated minimum pressure of 984mb. Kyle proceeded make landfall in Nova Scotia before becoming extratropical over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. Interestingly enough, the hurricane warnings issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. Hurricane advisories were not issued in Canada prior to 2004, but that policy was changed after Hurricane Juan devastated Halifax in 2003.

Tropical Storm Laura formed shortly after Kyle from a strong subtropical wave over the Central Atlantic. Laura never interacted with land, and only held tropical characteristics for a few hours before becoming an extratropical cyclone.

Most recently, Tropical Storm Marco formed just yesterday from a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche. Marco is an unusually small system, and had tropical storm winds that only extended 15 miles out from the center at landfall. It is without a doubt the smallest named storm in the Atlantic Basin that I have ever seen in my 12 years of being obsessed with tropical meteorology. Marco made landfall this morning in Mexico with winds of 65 mph. Marco will continue to move inland over Mexico, and will likely lose its tropical characteristics later tonight.

Tropical Storm Kyle

I just wanted to get this up on the blog. I will let Mike fill in all the details. This image of the Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone was taken from the NWS National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Ike In Rare Company

Hurricane Ike's damage estimates are finally coming in from the Gulf Coast. Estimated damage to property is nearly $31 billion (in 2008 US Dollars). $27 billion of the total came from the Gulf Coast of the US, with the other $4 billion coming in from Cuba where Ike made landfall as a category 4 hurricane. If the estimates are correct, Ike will become the third costliest hurricane in US history, behind only Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew.

Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall earlier this season, caused $17.5 billion worth of property damage, making it the 6th costliest hurricane behind Katrina, Andrew, Wilma, Ike, and Ivan. Interestingly enough 5 of those 6 storms have come since 2004.

Note: I'll write an updated statistical article after the end of the season that will document all of the records that fell during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Regional Roundup & H. Ike Aftermath

For tomorrow's Penn State vs. Temple game, we will continue to see seasonable weather as a ridge of high pressure dominates the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In several areas to our north, a Frost Advisory will remain in effect for the next several days. During the day on Sunday, a weak cold front will push across the State.

Down in Galveston, Texas, efforts are under way to aid the victims of Hurricane Ike. This image, taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Geodetic Survey's Hurricane Ike Base Map Image Index Page of the coast along the Blue Water Highway north of Surfside Beach, illustrates the devastation left behind for residents to pickup the pieces.

Hurricane Ike Rips Through Galveston

September 8, 1900. The Great Hurricane pummeled an ill prepared port city on Texas's Gulf Coast. 108 years later, Galveston never fully recovered. Before the great hurricane Galveston was the largest city in Texas, and was destined to be the most important port city on the Gulf Coast. That one storm changed everything when it essentially leveled the entire city, and killed upwards of 8,000 people. Galveston was rebuilt, and today it houses nearly 60,000 people. However, it never became the major city that it was expected to become. Instead, people moved into the nearby bay and turned Houston into that port metropolis. Five days and 108 years later was Ike here to repeat history?

Ike previously devastated Cuba as a compact but intense hurricane with winds upwards of 125mph. After crossing the entire island, Ike pushed into the Gulf of Mexico where it began to intensify. Most storms use the warm gulf waters to fuel a small area around the center of circulation, and as a result maximum wind speeds increase dramatically. Ike, on the other hand, spread the energy provided from the gulf over a wide range. Despite a dramatic pressure drop, Ike's maximum wind speeds never eclipsed 110 mph in the Gulf. However, Ike's overall size dramatically increased and hurricane force winds could now be felt over a region spanning 120 miles across.

As Ike moves inland today, the thousands of people (over 40% of Galveston's population) that decided to ignore evacuations will wake up to a different landscape. Storm surge ahead of Ike pulled sea water all across the island. The heavy rain bands around Ike's eye dumped over 2" of rain per hour adding to the flooding. Hurricane force winds battered the island for hours and ripped apart weaker structures. It is going to take a major effort to rebuild this region, as Ike likely did over $1 billion in damage.

Luckily for the Galveston, the hurricane did not pass to the south or east. Therefore, the south winds that develop as a hurricane passes in its lower right quadrant missed the city, and allowed the sea water to drain back into the bay. Nonetheless, Ike was a devastating storm for Galveston, and it's name will likely be retired with Gustav at season's end but, thankfully, the Great 1900 Hurricane still stands alone.

Note: I'll post more on Ike and the rest of the season over the next few days. In particularly, I'll write an article about the devastation in LA from Ike and Gustav, and I'll write an opinion article about the people who didn't heed evacuation orders. Right now, I'm just going to take some time to let the details to come back out of the region.

Dolly Slams Southern Texas

Hurricane Dolly made landfall near South Padre Island in Texas this morning. Dolly was a category two storm packing winds of 100 mph when she came ashore. She is expected to bring up to a foot and a half of rain and up to eight feet of storm surge across the region. Dolly will continue to weaken as it continues to move NW into central Texas. Hurricane warnings are still in effect from San Fernando, Mexico to Corpus Christi, Texas.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Cristobal is becoming extratropical over the open waters of the Atlantic as it rapidly moves northeast away from the United States. A tropical wave has also formed off of the coast of Africa and the National Hurricane Center will be observing the system over the next week as it moves to the west at about 20 mph. Any development of this system will be slow to occur.


(Radar imagery taken from NOAA)

Dolly Finally Forms

Well, it's finally official. The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center had been tracking all week has finally become the season's fourth tropical storm, Dolly. As of 5PM, Dolly was located about 230 miles SE of Cozumel, Mexico. She is packing winds of 45 mph, and will dump several inches of rain all across the Caribbean. Dolly will likely make landfall on the Yucatan on Monday before crossing into the Gulf of Mexico later in the day. Latest models indicate that Dolly will gain hurricane strength in the warm waters of the gulf before making it's second landfall in the middle part of the week.

(Rainbow IR satellite image of Dolly above produced by NOAA)

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Cristobal is impacting the Carolina coastline. Cristobal is a poorly defined system that currently lacks significant thunderstorm activity. However, Cristobal may bring rain to the East Coast before turning up the Gulf Stream and away from land. If you are heading down the shore be careful of dangerous rip currents associated with the system.

Also, we can finally say goodbye to former Hurricane Bertha. Bertha finally lost its tropical characteristics on Sunday over the cold waters of the extreme north Atlantic. Bertha formed way back on the 3rd of July as a weak tropical depression. Eventually Bertha reached hurricane status and topped out as a powerful category three hurricane on the 8th. Bertha weakened over the open waters as she turned northward and made landfall in Bermuda before finally heading out to sea.

I will continue to blog about the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season all the way through November 30th and beyond. For additional hurricane information check out the NHC's newly remodeled site www.nhc.noaa.gov

Regional Roundup - SE PA

Tropical Storm Cristobal is moving toward the northeast at eight miles per hour. Cristobal should not be an issue for our area except near the coast. As with Bertha, Cristobal brings an increased risk of rip currents.

Our area is currently experiencing severe thunderstorms. Many counties in the region are under severe thunderstorm watches and warnings. These storms will continue to linger into the midnight hours.

On Monday, a frontal boundary will approach from the northwest. These storms will remain isolated. Hopefully, the next few systems will bring a return to cooler weather to the region by Tuesday or Wednesday.