NOAA's 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

Last week, I was fortunate enough to be working at the National Weather Service when we were briefed on NOAA's season predictions. The Tropical Prediction Center is calling for a near average season this year with only 9-14 named storms and 4-7 hurricanes.

As I mentioned, I was fortunate to get a chance to listen to some of the scientists who made these predictions explain their outlook. They showed us that the Atlantic is indeed cooler than average for this time of year. Additionally, they explained that we are moving into a shift towards an El Nino pattern. During an El Nino year, there tends unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development due to an increase in the amount of wind shear across the Atlantic basin

However, right now we are in an ENSO-neutral pattern which definitely creates some uncertainty because we don't know exactly when the less favorable conditons will set in. However, El Nino is far from the only factor that affects these natural phenomina. Through my undergraduate research, I have learned that the NAO, the Gulf of Mexico's loop current, and even the amount of dust that blows off of the African coast can affect how many storms form in any given year. Therefore, it would not be unheard of to see more or even less activity this year.

If I had to make a prediciton, I would aim a few storms higher than the NHC going with 12-17 named storms. I leave you with this final note: The last time the atlantic tropical cyclone count was in the single digits was way back in 1997, when a record setting El Nino pattern was in place.

Happy hurricane hunting to all of my fellow tropical nuts, and most of all stay safe everyone!

TD One Kicks Off the Season Early

At 11AM EDT, or three days and thirteen hours before the official beginning of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Hurricane Center issued a public advisory on its first storm of the season. Tropical Depression One formed from a small low pressure system that had been spinning over the Gulf Stream for the past few days. Yesterday, the NHC did not expect this system to develop, but convection arose around the circulation low pressure system last night and early this morning. TD One is expected to become Tropical Storm Ana before it becomes extratropical over the cold waters of the N. Atlantic. Fortunately, TD One is not expect to impact any land masses as it moves NE away from the United States.

Update (6/29/09 6:30 PM): The NHC issued its final advisory on TD One which has lost its tropical characteristics over the cold waters of the northern Atlantic today. It seems like we are just going to have to wait until the official start of the season before we see Ana form. I'll try my best to keep posting whenever there is a storm in the Atlantic this season.

(satellite image courtesy of NOAA and the National Hurricane Center)