Caribbean Wave Poised to Move into Gulf

Tropical Depression One failed to become Tropical Storm Ana earlier this year; however a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea now appears to have the potential to become TD 2 and possibly even TS Ana. The tropical low has been spinning of the coast of Central America, and has developed a large area of thunderstorms over the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has recently given the system a medium (30-50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The wave is expected to bring heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula as it moves to the northwest and crosses over into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Much to the chagrin of the residents of the Gulf Coast, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the gulf are in the mid 80s, and conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development. If the wave can survive as it crosses the Yucatan, we could be looking at Tropical Storm Ana by the beginning of next week.

Update (6/27/09, 11:53 AM): The tropical wave still does not have a well defined circulation and has lost some of its thunderstorms. Therefore, as the NHC predicted, it is very unlikely that this storm will be named before moving over the Yucatan.

Update (6/28/09, 3:22 PM): The NHC has given this system a low (less than a 30%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It remains very disorganized and has lost a bit of thunderstorm of activity. However, it may strengthen as it emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Update (6/29/2009, 11:09 AM): The system has lost all of its thunderstorm activity and is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Sea of Tranquility

No, this title does not reference the famous landing site of Apollo 11; instead that title could be used to describe the tropical Atlantic Ocean since the opening of Hurricane Season 2009, on June 1st. The National Hurricane Center has not had much of a chance to issue their slew of new and experimental products. In fact, my least favorite phrase has found its way into the Tropical Weather Outlook almost on a daily basis. "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." Does this mean that we are in for that average season that NOAA predicted? Does this mean that the eastern seaboard of the United States can finally take a deep breath this summer? Not quite. Here are some examples of some significant hurricane seasons within the past 20 years that started off slowly out of the gate.

1992 Hurricane Season
This season wasn't exactly the most active season on record. In fact only seven named storms and four hurricanes formed that year. However, it only takes one storm to make an impact. The first named storm of that year didn't form until August 16, but it made its presence felt. A tropical wave emerged from the Eastern Atlantic and became a little tropical storm that you might of heard of, Andrew. That little storm became a powerful Category 5 storm that slammed into Florida while becoming the costliest hurricane in US history. Katrina in 2005, has since past Andrew in that category. Nonetheless, Andrew proved that a quiet first two months does not correlate to a quiet season for the United States.

1998 Hurricane Season
Coming off of a record setting El Nino event, the first few months of the 1998 season were anomalously quiet. In fact, the first hurricane of the season, Bonnie, did not form until late August. However, unlike the 1992 season, this season evolved into one of the most active seasons of the decade. Storms such as the aforementioned Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch devastated the Atlantic Basin. Mitch in particular grew to a powerful category five storm that devastated Central America with its torrential rains. Up to 75 inches of rain fell into mountainous regions of Honduras and over 10,000 people were left dead in Mitch's wake.

Now, does this mean we are in for the same fate as those in Florida in 1992 and Central America in 1998? Absolutely not. In fact there is a good chance that we made indeed have only an average season this year. Just remember the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is still a few months away, and as the great Yankee catcher Yogi Berra once said, "It's not over until it's over."