Forecast Discussion for Puerto Rico ahead of Hurricane Omar

I wrote this discussion for my Dad who is scheduled to fly into Puerto Rico this week. Its pretty comprehensive so I just figured I'd post it for the heck of it. All data is as of 11PM Tuesday Night (20081015/0300 GMT)

As you wake up this morning, you probably have realized that Hurricane Omar underwent some relatively rapid intensification overnight on Tuesday. Winds increased to 75 mph, and it became a category one hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the winds to increase to at least 100+ over the next day or two. Personally, I think they might be underestimating the storm, because they have already misjudged Omar's strength. Not to mention its pressure has dropped significantly around the center of circulation (below 980 mb), and the ocean waters ahead of the system remain warm. However, I doubt you will see intensification of the likes of Hurricane Mitch which became a category five storm in an extremely short period of time in the Caribbean almost exactly ten years to date. Nonetheless, it would not surprise me if Omar became a major hurricane as it was passing the island. Fortunately for the island, Omar's hurricane and tropical storm force winds are wrapped tightly around the center of circulation. I do expect the core of winds to expand a little bit over the warm waters; however, the hurricane force winds should spare the central region of Puerto Rico. Regardless, the winds will be the least of your concerns once you are on the ground. Islands around the region are expecting rainfall totals upwards of a foot from the now nearly stationary storm. Puerto Rico will not experience such extreme totals because the storm will begin to increase forward speed as it turns to the ENE away from the island. Currently, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted for the entire island. The outer rainbands of Omar are just offshore, and will likely interact with the entire island tomorrow. Central Puerto Rico should be spared from the worst of Omar. Barring any rapid intensification, expect periods of heavy rain with localized flooding, coastal flooding associated with storm surge, tropical storm winds (possibly gusting up to hurricane force), and the threat of a tornado. Omar will be just to the SE of the island at 8PM on Wednesday, and will proceed pass to the east of the island. I don't expect widespread devastation from Omar in Puerto Rico, but I know I wouldn't want to fly into this storm.