Finally, now that classes have ended, assignments are no longer due, and the Christmas rush has come and gone, ... It seems like it is time for me to begin my Atlantic Hurricane Season 2008 summary. Much like the National Hurricane Center's summary, my summary will contain information about each and every single storm of the season. However, I plan on interjecting my own opinions, comparisons to previous seasons, and other interesting facts throughout these posts. This summary will be divided up into several different "chapters" that I will post one at a time as I finish them. Some of the sources that I plan on utilizing are NOAA, wikipedia, and possibly some news outlets. I greatly encourage all of our readers to make their own comments on my summary because as much as I'd like to be, I am still not an expert in tropical meteorology. For now I will leave you with a tentative "table of contents" if you will. All the "parts" of the summary will hopefully be published on this site by the time the spring semester starts on January 12th. Until then, I wish everyone a belated Happy Holidays, and a Happy New Year!
EXPECTED "TABLE OF CONTENTS"
Part 1: Quiet Beginnings
-Look back at 2007, preseason expectations, and finally Arthur
Part 2: The Atlantic Warms
-From Bertha to Fay
Part 3: The Peak Months
-Hanna, and introductions to Gustav and Ike
Part 4: Major Hurricane Gustav
-detailed look at Gustav with a look back to Katrina from 2005
Part 5: Major Hurricane Ike
-detailed look at Ike with comparisons to the 1900 Galveston storm
Part 6: Season Finally Winding Down
-From Kyle to Paloma
Part 7: 2008 in Perspective
-conclusions, records, averages, etc, and a look towards 2009
Friday, December 26, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
Hurricane Season 2008 Quck Points
Yesterday marked the end of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will post my full season review in a few weeks during winter break. But for now, here are few quick points that I found on the National Hurricane Center's website, and Wikipedia. (the attached image is a product from the NHC during one of the more active parts of this past hurricane season)
2008 Hurricane Season Storms:
(16 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 5 Major Hurricanes)
Tropical Storm Arthur, Major Hurricane Bertha, Tropical Storm Cristobal, Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, Major Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna, Major Hurricane Ike, Tropical Storm Josephine, Hurricane Kyle, Tropical Storm Laura, Tropical Storm Marco, Tropical Storm Nana, Major Hurricane Omar, Major Hurricane Paloma
Of the 16 named storms: Ike was the strongest and most destructive storm, and Hanna was the deadliest storm.
Some Records: Ike was the third most destructive storm to strike the US. Paloma was the second strongest November storm on record. Ike was the largest storm on record while Marco is believed to be the smallest storm ever named. Fay became the first storm to make four landfalls in the same state. Arthur set a record for being the second May storm in as many years.
Michael's Winter Forecast
As the calendar changes into December and the North Atlantic cools, I begin to shift gears from focusing on tropical meteorology to the impending winter season. While, in no way am I an expert in winter weather, I do enjoy predicting individual winter storms in the "off-season". However, only once before have I made seasonal forecast, so here goes number two...
So far this "winter" (or should I say autumn) has been surprisingly active. November began much warmer than average, but it has been unseasonably cool lately. To date, State College has had about 4" of snow. The seasonal average is approximately 40". This winter, I believe that we will receive at least that much snowfall thanks to active oceans, and an early start to winter. I do not think that we will be on pace to break any records, but 46" of winter precipitation is certainly feasible this season. On the other hand if the coastal storms do not line up again like as they did last year, we could see more ice and rain and below average snowfall. So for now, we will just have to wait and see. I will try to provide forecasts for individual storms as the season develops (not to mention my 2008 Hurricane Season Summary in a few weeks), but for now, just let it snow, and happy holidays to all!
So far this "winter" (or should I say autumn) has been surprisingly active. November began much warmer than average, but it has been unseasonably cool lately. To date, State College has had about 4" of snow. The seasonal average is approximately 40". This winter, I believe that we will receive at least that much snowfall thanks to active oceans, and an early start to winter. I do not think that we will be on pace to break any records, but 46" of winter precipitation is certainly feasible this season. On the other hand if the coastal storms do not line up again like as they did last year, we could see more ice and rain and below average snowfall. So for now, we will just have to wait and see. I will try to provide forecasts for individual storms as the season develops (not to mention my 2008 Hurricane Season Summary in a few weeks), but for now, just let it snow, and happy holidays to all!
Chris' Winter Outlook
'08-'09 Winter Outlook
You probably have been wondering what the '08-'09 winter season will bring. This is something I have been pondering ever since the leaves began to drift towards the ground. By this point in the season, I am usually trying to figure out when the first snowfall of the year might be, but that date has already come and gone. At the beginning of November, I challenged everyone here at the wx blog to create a winter outlook. Since everyone has been so busy, we all decided to put it off until Thanksgiving break. As I sat at home, I set out to create the first of what I hope will be many winter weather outlooks. Mine will probably differ from many of my fellow bloggers because I decided not to limit myself to the confines of Happy Valley. I will be focusing on the State College area as well as Southeastern Pennsylvania.
Below is a picture from MODIS of the Oct 30th snowstorm.
I feel that one of the best ways to start this winter outlook is to reflect on last season ('07-'08). As I am sure many of you remember, La Nina dominated the Pacific Ocean last year. This led to a mild winter season for much of the Mid Atlantic. Southeastern Pennsylvania received one-third of the region’s average snowfall and half of the season’s total fell during one storm. The State College area winter went a little better receiving just below the average snowfall. Both areas experienced above normal temperature with several warm days.
Many would believe that if '07-'08 was dominated by below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures, the '08-'09 season would follow suit. Before we assume this to be true, let’s look at some of the weather patterns that will contribute to this winter season.
The Hurricane Season:
As I am sure you have figured out from Mike’s numerous postings, the 2008 hurricane season was very active. I am surprised that Mike did not blog about the hurricane season officially ending yesterday, November 30. Anyway, if this pattern of activity in the topics continues into the winter season, the Eastern Seaboard could be seeing a few significant Nor’easters.
October and November:
You do not need a climatologist to tell you that both October and November have been slightly cooler than normal. October was the 26th coldest October on 114 year record for Pennsylvania according to NCDC. We saw flurries from lake effect snow entering State College in Mid October and already had a nice snowstorm in most of Southeastern Pennsylvania in November. We have seen an increase in the Northeast snow cover over last year. I expect this pattern of cold weather to continue into the early part of this winter season.
So far, I seem to be painting a drastically different picture from last season, but we still have a few things to consider.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):
If you like snow, I have good news. It appears that we will not feel the effect of El Nino or La Nina. This is good news because every season with a neutral ENSO has had snowier winters!
Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO):
It looks like the MJO will be sending moist air from the Pacific to the United States and the AO will send cold air our way. Obviously both are good for a snowy winter.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):
Without ENSO playing a major role in controlling our winter weather, the North Atlantic Oscillation will affect most of our storms. The problem with the NAO is that it cannot be predicted reliably more than one week in advance. For the beginning of December, we can expect the NAO to be negative which means more storms. The NAO is currently negative. If the NAO remains negative for the majority of the season, this winter could be one for the record books.
Okay, now it is time for the hard part. Let me remind you this is the first of what I hope are many winter outlooks.
Southeastern Pennsylvania:
State College:
So why did I differ so greatly on the snowfall. I think that Southeastern Pennsylvania will get most of its snow from Nor’easters and I will not be surprised if the snowfall greatly exceeds my prediction. State College seems to gets most of its snow from Alberta Clippers and lake effect snow. These two factors will probably stay close to normal. Unless a Nor’easter tracks inland, I do not think the Happy Valley will see much snow from this type of system. As far as January and February go, I expect that there will be a warm up in amongst the cold spells. I think that this will happen in beginning of February, but I could be wrong.
I think most snow lovers will be happy with this winter season. I also feel that there is good chance of a White Christmas.
No matter what happens this season, remember to stay safe in adverse conditions. Also, return to this blog for the latest on winter phenomena.
All pictures were taken from the following United States Government Agencies: NOAA, NWS, NASA, and NCDC.
You probably have been wondering what the '08-'09 winter season will bring. This is something I have been pondering ever since the leaves began to drift towards the ground. By this point in the season, I am usually trying to figure out when the first snowfall of the year might be, but that date has already come and gone. At the beginning of November, I challenged everyone here at the wx blog to create a winter outlook. Since everyone has been so busy, we all decided to put it off until Thanksgiving break. As I sat at home, I set out to create the first of what I hope will be many winter weather outlooks. Mine will probably differ from many of my fellow bloggers because I decided not to limit myself to the confines of Happy Valley. I will be focusing on the State College area as well as Southeastern Pennsylvania.
Below is a picture from MODIS of the Oct 30th snowstorm.
I feel that one of the best ways to start this winter outlook is to reflect on last season ('07-'08). As I am sure many of you remember, La Nina dominated the Pacific Ocean last year. This led to a mild winter season for much of the Mid Atlantic. Southeastern Pennsylvania received one-third of the region’s average snowfall and half of the season’s total fell during one storm. The State College area winter went a little better receiving just below the average snowfall. Both areas experienced above normal temperature with several warm days.
Many would believe that if '07-'08 was dominated by below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures, the '08-'09 season would follow suit. Before we assume this to be true, let’s look at some of the weather patterns that will contribute to this winter season.
The Hurricane Season:
As I am sure you have figured out from Mike’s numerous postings, the 2008 hurricane season was very active. I am surprised that Mike did not blog about the hurricane season officially ending yesterday, November 30. Anyway, if this pattern of activity in the topics continues into the winter season, the Eastern Seaboard could be seeing a few significant Nor’easters.
October and November:
You do not need a climatologist to tell you that both October and November have been slightly cooler than normal. October was the 26th coldest October on 114 year record for Pennsylvania according to NCDC. We saw flurries from lake effect snow entering State College in Mid October and already had a nice snowstorm in most of Southeastern Pennsylvania in November. We have seen an increase in the Northeast snow cover over last year. I expect this pattern of cold weather to continue into the early part of this winter season.
So far, I seem to be painting a drastically different picture from last season, but we still have a few things to consider.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):If you like snow, I have good news. It appears that we will not feel the effect of El Nino or La Nina. This is good news because every season with a neutral ENSO has had snowier winters!
Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO):
It looks like the MJO will be sending moist air from the Pacific to the United States and the AO will send cold air our way. Obviously both are good for a snowy winter.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):
Without ENSO playing a major role in controlling our winter weather, the North Atlantic Oscillation will affect most of our storms. The problem with the NAO is that it cannot be predicted reliably more than one week in advance. For the beginning of December, we can expect the NAO to be negative which means more storms. The NAO is currently negative. If the NAO remains negative for the majority of the season, this winter could be one for the record books.
Okay, now it is time for the hard part. Let me remind you this is the first of what I hope are many winter outlooks.
Southeastern Pennsylvania:
- December: 1 degree below normal with average precipitation
- January: 2 degrees below normal with above average precipitation
- February: 1 degree above normal with average precipitation
- March: 1 degree below normal with below average precipitation
- Snowfall: 5-10” above normal
State College:
- December: 2 degrees below normal with below average precipitation
- January: 1 degree below normal temperatures with average precipitation
- February: average temperatures with average precipitation
- March: 1 degree below normal with below average precipitation
- Snowfall: 1-5” above normal
So why did I differ so greatly on the snowfall. I think that Southeastern Pennsylvania will get most of its snow from Nor’easters and I will not be surprised if the snowfall greatly exceeds my prediction. State College seems to gets most of its snow from Alberta Clippers and lake effect snow. These two factors will probably stay close to normal. Unless a Nor’easter tracks inland, I do not think the Happy Valley will see much snow from this type of system. As far as January and February go, I expect that there will be a warm up in amongst the cold spells. I think that this will happen in beginning of February, but I could be wrong.
I think most snow lovers will be happy with this winter season. I also feel that there is good chance of a White Christmas.
No matter what happens this season, remember to stay safe in adverse conditions. Also, return to this blog for the latest on winter phenomena.
All pictures were taken from the following United States Government Agencies: NOAA, NWS, NASA, and NCDC.
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