You probably have been wondering what the '08-'09 winter season will bring. This is something I have been pondering ever since the leaves began to drift towards the ground. By this point in the season, I am usually trying to figure out when the first snowfall of the year might be, but that date has already come and gone. At the beginning of November, I challenged everyone here at the wx blog to create a winter outlook. Since everyone has been so busy, we all decided to put it off until Thanksgiving break. As I sat at home, I set out to create the first of what I hope will be many winter weather outlooks. Mine will probably differ from many of my fellow bloggers because I decided not to limit myself to the confines of Happy Valley. I will be focusing on the State College area as well as Southeastern Pennsylvania.
Below is a picture from MODIS of the Oct 30th snowstorm.
I feel that one of the best ways to start this winter outlook is to reflect on last season ('07-'08). As I am sure many of you remember, La Nina dominated the Pacific Ocean last year. This led to a mild winter season for much of the Mid Atlantic. Southeastern Pennsylvania received one-third of the region’s average snowfall and half of the season’s total fell during one storm. The State College area winter went a little better receiving just below the average snowfall. Both areas experienced above normal temperature with several warm days.
Many would believe that if '07-'08 was dominated by below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures, the '08-'09 season would follow suit. Before we assume this to be true, let’s look at some of the weather patterns that will contribute to this winter season.
The Hurricane Season:
As I am sure you have figured out from Mike’s numerous postings, the 2008 hurricane season was very active. I am surprised that Mike did not blog about the hurricane season officially ending yesterday, November 30. Anyway, if this pattern of activity in the topics continues into the winter season, the Eastern Seaboard could be seeing a few significant Nor’easters.
October and November:
You do not need a climatologist to tell you that both October and November have been slightly cooler than normal. October was the 26th coldest October on 114 year record for Pennsylvania according to NCDC. We saw flurries from lake effect snow entering State College in Mid October and already had a nice snowstorm in most of Southeastern Pennsylvania in November. We have seen an increase in the Northeast snow cover over last year. I expect this pattern of cold weather to continue into the early part of this winter season.
So far, I seem to be painting a drastically different picture from last season, but we still have a few things to consider.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):If you like snow, I have good news. It appears that we will not feel the effect of El Nino or La Nina. This is good news because every season with a neutral ENSO has had snowier winters!
Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO):
It looks like the MJO will be sending moist air from the Pacific to the United States and the AO will send cold air our way. Obviously both are good for a snowy winter.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):
Without ENSO playing a major role in controlling our winter weather, the North Atlantic Oscillation will affect most of our storms. The problem with the NAO is that it cannot be predicted reliably more than one week in advance. For the beginning of December, we can expect the NAO to be negative which means more storms. The NAO is currently negative. If the NAO remains negative for the majority of the season, this winter could be one for the record books.
Okay, now it is time for the hard part. Let me remind you this is the first of what I hope are many winter outlooks.
Southeastern Pennsylvania:
- December: 1 degree below normal with average precipitation
- January: 2 degrees below normal with above average precipitation
- February: 1 degree above normal with average precipitation
- March: 1 degree below normal with below average precipitation
- Snowfall: 5-10” above normal
State College:
- December: 2 degrees below normal with below average precipitation
- January: 1 degree below normal temperatures with average precipitation
- February: average temperatures with average precipitation
- March: 1 degree below normal with below average precipitation
- Snowfall: 1-5” above normal
So why did I differ so greatly on the snowfall. I think that Southeastern Pennsylvania will get most of its snow from Nor’easters and I will not be surprised if the snowfall greatly exceeds my prediction. State College seems to gets most of its snow from Alberta Clippers and lake effect snow. These two factors will probably stay close to normal. Unless a Nor’easter tracks inland, I do not think the Happy Valley will see much snow from this type of system. As far as January and February go, I expect that there will be a warm up in amongst the cold spells. I think that this will happen in beginning of February, but I could be wrong.
I think most snow lovers will be happy with this winter season. I also feel that there is good chance of a White Christmas.
No matter what happens this season, remember to stay safe in adverse conditions. Also, return to this blog for the latest on winter phenomena.
All pictures were taken from the following United States Government Agencies: NOAA, NWS, NASA, and NCDC.
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