Michael's Winter Forecast

As the calendar changes into December and the North Atlantic cools, I begin to shift gears from focusing on tropical meteorology to the impending winter season. While, in no way am I an expert in winter weather, I do enjoy predicting individual winter storms in the "off-season". However, only once before have I made seasonal forecast, so here goes number two...

So far this "winter" (or should I say autumn) has been surprisingly active. November began much warmer than average, but it has been unseasonably cool lately. To date, State College has had about 4" of snow. The seasonal average is approximately 40". This winter, I believe that we will receive at least that much snowfall thanks to active oceans, and an early start to winter. I do not think that we will be on pace to break any records, but 46" of winter precipitation is certainly feasible this season. On the other hand if the coastal storms do not line up again like as they did last year, we could see more ice and rain and below average snowfall. So for now, we will just have to wait and see. I will try to provide forecasts for individual storms as the season develops (not to mention my 2008 Hurricane Season Summary in a few weeks), but for now, just let it snow, and happy holidays to all!